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Where to for the gold price? The decade-long bull phase could give way to a major correction

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Category: Commodities

Published on Friday, 11 May 2012 09:50

The spot gold price is 0.78 pct lower on a daily basis, at 10:42 BST it is at 1581.14. 

Questions continue to be raised as to whether we are witnessing the end of the decade-long rally in the precious meta's price.

"Gold has been in an extraordinary bull phase over the past decade or so with the price accelerating in its ascent from late-2008 to mid-2011. However, this key precious metal has lost some of its lustre in recent times and now is on the brink of a major correction," notes David Morrison at GFT.

Morrison who approaches his analysts from a technical perspective notes that the gold price has broken through the lower trendline channel (on the weekly chart) which is quite a significant move.

"Yesterday, the selling came to a halt as short-side speculators rushed to cover their positions. Support was provided by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from December to February ($1580). This may prove to be only a short term obstacle, should the euro and equities retreat further forcing  leveraged gold buyers to liquidate their positions to raise cash. There is strong resistance at $1625, while a more established area of support is seen around $1520/35," says Morrison.

Elsewhere in the commodity space, both Brent and WTI crude are hovering around their respective 200-day moving averages, with WTI a touch above, and Brent a fraction below.

Data from China yesterday showed that growth in both exports and imports slowed sharply compared with this time last year.

The news raised concerns that estimates for Chinese growth in 2012 may be revised down further from the official expectation of 7.5%.