Oil prices: Headwinds remain but brent crude unlikely to test anything below 100 USD unless a 'left field' event occurs
- Category: Commodities
- Published: Monday, 14 May 2012 11:45
The last day it traded below $110 per barrel was 25 January 2012.
The last time front-month Brent traded intra-day below $100 per barrel was 4 October 2011. The last time it traded below $100 per barrel on two consecutive days was 8 February 2011.
Analyst Amrita Sen at Barclays says that while there are headwinds in the short term, brent crude is unlikely to test anything below 100 USD a barrel.
However it is conceivable should, "something comes out of left field, radically transforms the macroeconomic outlook and re-energises the macro short on oil," says Sen.
And even under those circumstances, Barclays would expect OPEC to start to trim output in the face of the latest resurgence in sovereign debt concerns.
Oil prices have remained under pressure today as political uncertainty from Europe and Greece in particular remains a live issue.
European political tensions intensified in the wake of the Greek elections, with heightened fears that the political impasse may even lead to the exit of Greece from euro area membership.
Given the severity of the repercussions of an exit for all euro area members, our economists believe that such a scenario will be avoided at all costs.