Euro Exchange Rate News Index

"The euro is expected to benefit some from labour data today in Germany, but in the wake of strong US data yesterday we still see little scope for a sustained recovery much above 1.29 and towards 1.2950," say UniCredit Bank in a morning brief to clients.

Ahead of this data, we see the euro dollar exchange rate flat at 1.2858. The euro pound exchange rate is also unmoved at 0.8546. The euro to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.63 pct up at 1.3457.    

(These rates come from the wholesale markets - your bank will affix their own discretionary spread to the figures. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Find out more here.)

Barclays lower economic growth forecasts for Eurozone

As always - the outlook for the euro is acutely dependent on the relative performance of the German economy.

Today we hear that analysts at Barclays have lowered their 2013 GDP forecasts for Europe's largest economy.

However, the second half of 2013 should see improved performances.

Live EUR/USD Chart


Exchange Rate
Forecasts 2013:


Analyst Thomas Harjes says:

"The German economy suffered a soft start into 2013, with GDP expanding by a mere 0.1% q/q in Q1 13 following the sharp contraction in Q4 12 (-0.7% q/q), which was caused by a slump in external demand. Private consumption was
strong but exceptionally cold weather weighed on construction activity earlier this year.

Growth should accelerate markedly in Q2 but owing to the weak economic performance over the past couple of quarters, we have revised down our annual 2013 GDP forecast to 0.5%.

"The strength of global demand, both from Europe and overseas, remains a concern in the near term.

"Our medium-term outlook remains relatively bullish for Germany’s economy in view of its sound domestic fundamentals and export strength."

The key hear is the last paragraph - we see this as a sign that the euro is likely to remain well supported going through the middle of 2013.