Exchange Rates

The latest currency forecast note from UniCredit, the Italian bank, sees the EUR-USD entrenching itself in the 1.25-1.20 trading band.

(Access to the UniCredit FX forecast tables are available at our IMT site, access is Free via the site's Facebook gateway).

On the near-term outlook for the euro, UniCredit say:


"If it's not about Greece, it's about Spain.

"We remain rather skeptical in regard to the performance of the euro over the next couple of weeks.

"This picture does not bode well for EUR-USD unless we will have an extremely disappointing US labor market report this afternoon."

The US dollar is forecasted to continue benefiting from the on-going nervousness amongst investors.

"The US dollar may even benefit from simultaneously weaker oil prices, which are also an indication of increasing risk aversion. Now that EUR-USD is well established in the 1.20-1.25 trading band, any recovery potential will be strictly limited while a break of the 1.23 threshold would keep the door wide open for a slide into the lower half of the trading band," say UniCredit.