The Pound Sterling Live

The MPC minutes are backward looking - today's inflation tells us about future decisions, hence its elevated clout.

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11:55: The crux of today's inflation data for the British pound sterling?


Ross Walker at RBS on why sterling is feeling the heat:

"A 2.4 pct CPI outturn 'feels' much less problematic than 2.8 pct and presents a more favourable backdrop for Mark Carney should he be inclined to push for more aggressive 'monetary activism.'"

Jamie Perkins, partner at the IFA Westminster Wealth Management:

"Such a sharp and unexpected drop in CPI will give the Bank's new Governor the freedom to pull the QE trigger again if he feels it is needed."

RBS meanwhile appear to be forecasting further declines in inflation:

"The question raised by April's data is whether these more broad-based declines in inflation will be sustained or whether this is more of temporary blip reflecting seasonal distortions. The subdued outlook for nominal household income (at just 3.2 pct 2013 and 3.4 pct in 2014) suggests underlying disinflationary pressure."

10:00: Latest sterling exchange rates in wake of inflation data


The pound to euro exchange rate is 0.4 pct in the red at 1.1795.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is half a percent lower at 1.5182.
The pound to Australian dollar is 0.33 pct down at 1.5506.

9:30: UK inflation under expectations, GBP falls


Good news for UK consumers. Bad news for those hoping for a strong pound as CPI for April is weaker than expected at 2.4 pct versus expectations of 2.6 pct, the lowest level since September 2012.

UK Core CPI falls to lowest level since 2009, GBP is lower as it increases the scope for more monetary stimulus at the Bank of England.

8:31: The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) is seeing losses this morning


GBP is however well within recent ranges and will in all likelihood maintain these ranges ahead of today's inflation numbers.

The pound sterling to euro exchange rate is 0.11 pct in the red at 1.1831.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.09 pct down on Monday's closing rate at 1.5242.
The pound to Australian dollar rate is 0.2 pct lower at 1.5528.

8:30: Inflation figures ahead

In a morning outlook piece KBC Markets analyst Piet Lammens comments on today's key sterling driver, UK inflation:

"Today, the UK PPI and CPI data will be published. PPI is already a low levels and the CPI is expected to showing some easing (2.6% Y/Y from 2.8%). A bigger than expected decline in inflation might be seen as giving the BoE some additional room of manoeuvre in case they would feel the need to support the economy further. So, it could be a slightly negative for sterling."